Monday, April 13, 2020

UIS professor: Illinois’ economic recovery after COVID-19 recession depends on government, consumer sentiment, experts say

The COVID-19 recession is already expected to be deeper than the Great Recession that ended in 2009, but the recovery could be quicker. While economic recovery is expected after the COVID-recession, how fast the economy picks back up depends on several factors.

University of Illinois Springfield Professor Kenneth Kriz said there are two possible economic recoveries once the state lifts the government-imposed economic shutdown that was implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19.

“A V-shaped recession would be an immediate bounce back, that’s what the National Association of Business Economists see,” Kriz said. “Some other forecasters have looked at a U-shape, which would be a slightly longer recovery period.”

Ultimately, Kriz said the longer the COVID-19 recession lasts, the greater the toll on state and local government revenue.

UIS professor Beverly Bunch said when the stay-at-home orders are lifted, not everything will get turned back on in a day. “Clearly the governor has asked people not to plan large events,” Bunch said. “Conferences that are being scheduled for the fall are still in limbo whether they’re going to happen or whether they’re going to go online.” She said a lot of it will also depend on the advice being given out by public health officials.

This article appeared on The Center Square on April 10, 2020.

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